Walmart (WMT) is set to release its first-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings on May 15, 2025, with analysts projecting revenue of $164-166 billion (up 2-3% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.58-0.59, while market sentiment remains broadly positive with all 19 tracked analysts rating the stock as a “buy” despite concerns about tariff impacts and full-year outlook uncertainty.
Revenue: Analysts expect Walmart to report first-quarter revenue in the range of $164.47 billion to $166 billion. This would represent a year-over-year increase of approximately 2% to 3% from the $161.51 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year. Walmart itself has guided for first-quarter sales to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus among analysts is for Walmart to report an adjusted EPS of $0.58 or $0.59 for the first quarter. This is a slight decrease compared to the $0.60 or $0.63 (figures vary across sources) reported in the first quarter of the prior year. Walmart’s own guidance for EPS is in the range of $0.57 to $0.58. Some analysts project a net income of around $4.64 billion, potentially before one-time charges.
Historical Performance: Walmart has a track record of beating revenue estimates for over ten consecutive quarters and has surpassed EPS estimates in five straight quarters, and nine of the last ten. However, in the previous quarter, Walmart’s full-year EPS forecast fell short of analysts’ predictions. Historically, WMT stock has increased 50% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 3.6%.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary
Overall Sentiment: The market sentiment towards Walmart appears positive. All 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha who follow the company rate the stock as a “buy”. There is also positive sentiment among investors in the non-discretionary retail segment, with share prices in this sector up 15.9% on average over the last month. Walmart’s stock has shown strong momentum, with a significant 1-month return of +19.34% and a 1-year return of +61.87% leading up to the earnings release. As of May 13, 2025, WMT’s stock price was around $96-$97.61.
Price Targets: Analysts’ average price target for Walmart is near $111, which is more than 15% above its closing price of around $96 on May 13, 2025, and higher than its record close of $105.05 on February 13 of the same year. Specific price targets from analysts include:
- Oppenheimer: Lifted their price target to $110 from $100.
- Morgan Stanley: Maintained a price target of $115.
- Bank of America: Has a $120 price target, tied for the highest publicly listed on Visible Alpha as of May 12, 2025.
- Citi: Also has a $120 price target.
- Telsey Advisory Group: Maintained a price target of $115.
- Jefferies (Corey Tarlowe): Price target of $120 per share.
- Tariff Impact: A significant point of discussion is the potential impact of tariffs. Analysts believe Walmart is well-positioned to navigate challenges related to tariffs due to its scale, supply chain advantages, category mix, and price gaps. The earnings report is expected to provide more clarity on how tariffs are affecting the company and consumer spending. Walmart’s management has noted that persistent tariffs are creating challenges for profit margins and future profitability projections.
- E-commerce and Same-Store Sales: Bank of America analysts anticipate Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce growth may surpass expectations, forecasting 18% year-over-year growth compared to a 16% consensus. However, they predict U.S. same-store sales growth might be slightly less impressive than expected, at 3% year-over-year, a bit below the consensus. Walmart’s now-profitable U.S. e-commerce business is seen as a long-term growth driver.
- Grocery and Consumer Spending: Walmart is expected to benefit from grocery market share gains. Analysts note that consumers are increasingly focused on essentials like food and consumables, where Walmart holds a strong position as the nation’s largest grocer. However, margins in grocery remain lower than in general merchandise. The retail economy is described as “fragile,” with consumers looking to stretch their dollars.
- Full-Year Outlook: While analysts expect a solid first quarter, there is some uncertainty regarding Walmart’s full-year outlook. Walmart maintained its sales growth expectation of 3% to 4% for Q1 but indicated that its “range of outcomes” for operating income growth has widened.
- Stock Valuation and Technicals: Some analysts, like those at Bank of America, believe Walmart’s high valuation is warranted due to continued share gains across product categories and income levels. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), and Stochastic RSI (StochRSI) suggest the stock might be approaching or in overbought territory, indicating a potential pullback, though it currently trades above its short-term moving averages, which is a bullish sign.
Key Factors and Insights:
Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Oppenheimer have maintained “buy”-equivalent ratings, with Oppenheimer remaining bullish even if Q1 results are slightly subdued, viewing any stock weakness as likely short-lived. Telsey Advisory Group also maintained an “Outperform” rating.
